Mel Stride

Under Mel Stride and his predecessors, the DWP welfare bill grew by £28bn over four years — driven by rising PIP claims (up 34%), long-term sickness (up 25%), and structural increases in Universal Credit claimants. Despite promises to reduce dependency, reforms failed to keep pace with demand growth. The taper rate cut improved incentives marginally but did not reverse the trend at scale.

The freeze of the income tax personal allowance at £12,570 was introduced by the Conservative government — not Labour. Holding thresholds while inflation rises is the mechanism for fiscal drag: as earnings grow, more income falls into taxable bands. The IFS estimates this stealth tax will cost median households over £1,200/year by 2028 compared to an indexed system. Labour extended it, but the Conservatives created it.

As Shadow Chancellor, Stride has proposed welfare reform, cutting benefits fraud, and tighter spending discipline. He opposes Labour's employer NI rise and threshold changes. However, a fully costed shadow budget with OBR-style verification has not been published as of May 2026, leaving a credibility question over how Conservative promises would be funded.

Stride has called for spending discipline and opposes Labour's tax rises — but the Conservatives' own record shows welfare costs grew £28bn and fraud hit record levels under their watch. Any credible alternative must explain how similar outcomes would be avoided, and how £36bn+ in overruns would be addressed differently.

Benefits fraud and error reached £8.7bn under the Conservatives — a 40% increase from 2020. Understaffing, rushed COVID-era UC claims processing, and inadequate fraud detection systems all contributed. The NAO rated DWP's value for money as a C. Stride publicly acknowledged the problem but did not resolve it before leaving office in 2024.